guidance test 4
Run 0d99d15d · view hypothesis
completed
Trades
25
Win rate
60.00%
Avg return
0.71%
Median return
0.68%
Avg abnormal
0.57%
Median abnormal
1.16%
Best trade
7.06%
Worst trade
-7.82%
Sharpe (per-trade)
0.19
Max drawdown
-10.07%
Equity curve
Breakdowns
| Bucket | Trades | Avg return | Avg abnormal | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 13 | -0.17% | 0.04% | 53.85% |
| 2026 | 12 | 1.68% | 1.14% | 66.67% |
Trades (25)
| Symbol | Event | Entry date | Exit date | Δ days | Market entry | Actual buy-in | Diff % | Fill source | P/E after earn. | Curr. earn. vs next-Q est. | EPS surp. | Return | Benchmark | Abnormal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGAU | 2025-08-06 | 2025-08-07 | 2025-08-08 | — | 7.29 | 7.29 | 0.00% | market | 29.16 | 12.10% | 47.06% | -3.77% | 0.15% | -3.91% |
| SUZ | 2025-08-06 | 2025-08-07 | 2025-08-08 | — | 9.72 | 9.72 | 0.00% | market | 13.69 | 142.98% | 185.03% | 3.81% | 0.15% | 3.66% |
| IFS | 2025-08-11 | 2025-08-12 | 2025-08-13 | — | 37.97 | 37.97 | 0.00% | market | 26.93 | 181.98% | 31.78% | 2.20% | 1.03% | 1.16% |
| UGP | 2025-08-13 | 2025-08-14 | 2025-08-15 | — | 3.31 | 3.31 | 0.00% | market | 19.47 | 203.66% | 183.33% | -0.50% | 0.10% | -0.60% |
| CIG | 2025-08-14 | 2025-08-15 | 2025-08-18 | — | 1.93 | 1.93 | 0.00% | market | 24.13 | 343.25% | 54.08% | 0.84% | -0.42% | 1.25% |
| BSBR | 2025-10-27 | 2025-10-28 | 2025-10-29 | — | 5.45 | 5.45 | 0.00% | market | 10.86 | 122.49% | 180.92% | 2.37% | 0.05% | 2.32% |
| ARIS | 2025-10-29 | 2025-10-30 | 2025-10-31 | — | 9.63 | 9.63 | 0.00% | market | 26.75 | 17.36% | 33.33% | 2.40% | -0.27% | 2.67% |
| SLDE | 2025-11-05 | 2025-11-06 | 2025-11-07 | — | 17.25 | 17.25 | 0.00% | market | 21.84 | 11.16% | 61.22% | -3.97% | -0.81% | -3.16% |
| IX | 2025-11-12 | 2025-11-13 | 2025-11-14 | — | 26.15 | 26.15 | 0.00% | market | 26.41 | 7945.16% | 74.30% | 0.11% | -1.26% | 1.37% |
| SMFG | 2025-11-14 | 2025-11-17 | 2025-11-18 | — | 17.52 | 17.52 | 0.00% | market | 29.69 | 10033.46% | 47.50% | -3.97% | -1.44% | -2.53% |
| WF | 2025-11-14 | 2025-11-17 | 2025-11-18 | — | 54.92 | 54.92 | 0.00% | market | 15.38 | 36135.43% | 56.58% | -2.59% | -1.44% | -1.15% |
| TCOM | 2025-11-17 | 2025-11-18 | 2025-11-19 | — | 70.96 | 70.96 | 0.00% | market | 18.34 | 22.77% | 236.52% | 1.90% | 0.08% | 1.82% |
| KEP | 2025-12-18 | 2025-12-19 | 2025-12-22 | — | 16.77 | 16.77 | 0.00% | market | 7.95 | 52980.49% | 28.66% | -1.09% | 1.22% | -2.31% |
| INSW | 2026-02-26 | 2026-02-27 | 2026-03-02 | — | 73.39 | 73.39 | 0.00% | market | 29.96 | 17.03% | 40.00% | 4.04% | 0.48% | 3.56% |
| VSNT | 2026-03-03 | 2026-03-04 | 2026-03-05 | — | 34.28 | 34.28 | 0.00% | market | 24.49 | 13.00% | 45.08% | 7.06% | -0.05% | 7.11% |
| PBR | 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-06 | 2026-03-09 | — | 17.25 | 17.25 | 0.00% | market | 23.96 | 37.60% | 26.32% | 5.08% | 0.72% | 4.35% |
| CIG-C | 2026-03-20 | 2026-03-23 | 2026-03-24 | — | 3.13 | 3.13 | 0.00% | market | 23.48 | 95.36% | 146.30% | -2.44% | -0.74% | -1.69% |
| CIG | 2026-03-23 | 2026-03-24 | 2026-03-25 | — | 2.30 | 2.30 | 0.00% | market | 17.25 | 95.36% | 146.30% | 4.15% | 0.84% | 3.30% |
| CRGY | 2026-05-04 | 2026-05-05 | 2026-05-06 | — | 14.18 | 14.18 | 0.00% | market | 26.75 | 11.35% | 35.90% | -7.82% | 1.67% | -9.49% |
| DHT | 2026-05-05 | 2026-05-06 | 2026-05-07 | — | 19.43 | 19.43 | 0.00% | market | 19.24 | 17.08% | 63.70% | -2.31% | 0.47% | -2.78% |
| CF | 2026-05-06 | 2026-05-07 | 2026-05-08 | — | 114.10 | 114.10 | 0.00% | market | 28.60 | 41.16% | 51.71% | 0.61% | 0.35% | 0.26% |
| SM | 2026-05-06 | 2026-05-07 | 2026-05-08 | — | 27.52 | 27.52 | 0.00% | market | 17.75 | 26.61% | 38.39% | 6.78% | 0.35% | 6.43% |
| INSW | 2026-05-07 | 2026-05-08 | 2026-05-11 | — | 91.03 | 91.03 | 0.00% | market | 23.34 | 40.99% | 57.26% | -1.65% | 0.59% | -2.24% |
| TEO | 2026-05-12 | 2026-05-13 | 2026-05-14 | — | 11.69 | 11.69 | 0.00% | market | 11.24 | 35402.52% | 271.43% | 5.96% | 1.31% | 4.65% |
| MNSO | 2026-05-26 | 2026-05-27 | 2026-05-28 | — | 12.46 | 12.46 | 0.00% | market | 21.08 | 216.33% | 148.32% | 0.68% | 0.50% | 0.19% |