True guidance raise (lookback 30y) (2)
Run 5f7609d1 · view hypothesis
completed
Legacy run: publication dates, coverage and daily drawdown were not validated. Run this hypothesis again for updated results.
Trades
548
Win rate
50.18%
Avg return
0.49%
Median return
0.04%
Avg abnormal
-0.04%
Median abnormal
-0.40%
Best trade
78.10%
Worst trade
-41.31%
Sharpe (per-trade)
0.04
Daily portfolio drawdown
—
Equity curve — full run
Breakdowns
| Bucket | Trades | Avg return | Avg abnormal | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 43 | -2.73% | -3.47% | 44.19% |
| 2022 | 110 | 0.48% | 1.28% | 57.27% |
| 2023 | 104 | 0.29% | -0.78% | 42.31% |
| 2024 | 112 | 0.40% | -0.58% | 48.21% |
| 2025 | 113 | 2.00% | 1.23% | 51.33% |
| 2026 | 66 | 0.51% | -0.13% | 56.06% |
Trades (page 2: 48 of 548)
| Symbol | Event | Entry date | Exit date | Δ days | Market entry | Actual buy-in | Diff % | Fill source | EPS surp. | Curr. earn. vs next-Q est. | Return | Benchmark | Abnormal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BWLP | 2026-03-03 | 2026-03-04 | 2026-03-18 | — | 17.80 | 17.80 | 0.00% | market | 14.43% | 64.34% | -14.58% | -2.96% | -11.62% |
| MRX | 2026-03-03 | 2026-03-04 | 2026-03-18 | — | 42.33 | 42.33 | 0.00% | market | 10.78% | 22.34% | -14.09% | -2.96% | -11.13% |
| AUNA | 2026-03-10 | 2026-03-11 | 2026-03-25 | — | 5.57 | 5.57 | 0.00% | market | 307.69% | 13.04% | 7.16% | -3.06% | 10.22% |
| ALH | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-13 | 2026-03-27 | — | 19.20 | 19.20 | 0.00% | market | 9.09% | 10.58% | 1.52% | -5.26% | 6.78% |
| FUTU | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-13 | 2026-03-27 | — | 144.51 | 144.51 | 0.00% | market | 6.60% | 638.10% | -7.51% | -5.26% | -2.26% |
| ANDG | 2026-03-17 | 2026-03-18 | 2026-04-01 | — | 26.22 | 26.22 | 0.00% | market | 53.57% | 442.20% | 11.17% | -1.96% | 13.13% |
| ATAT | 2026-03-17 | 2026-03-18 | 2026-04-01 | — | 37.51 | 37.51 | 0.00% | market | 11.63% | 478.75% | -1.72% | -1.96% | 0.24% |
| AIR | 2026-03-24 | 2026-03-25 | 2026-04-09 | — | 114.90 | 114.90 | 0.00% | market | 8.70% | 10.74% | 6.88% | 3.22% | 3.66% |
| DBI | 2026-03-26 | 2026-03-27 | 2026-04-13 | — | 5.54 | 5.54 | 0.00% | market | 35.42% | 111.25% | 21.82% | 6.79% | 15.04% |
| BAK | 2026-03-27 | 2026-03-30 | 2026-04-14 | — | 3.59 | 3.59 | 0.00% | market | 51.02% | 321.72% | 11.22% | 8.49% | 2.73% |
| GNE | 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-01 | 2026-04-16 | — | 14.08 | 14.08 | 0.00% | market | 128.57% | 56.25% | -3.47% | 7.30% | -10.77% |
| JILL | 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-01 | 2026-04-16 | — | 11.56 | 11.56 | 0.00% | market | 83.33% | 2181.70% | 5.25% | 7.30% | -2.05% |
| DAL | 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-09 | 2026-04-23 | — | 67.64 | 67.64 | 0.00% | market | 10.34% | 133.21% | 0.88% | 4.98% | -4.10% |
| PLGO | 2025-05-14 | 2026-04-14 | 2026-04-28 | — | 19.93 | 19.93 | 0.00% | market | 12.11% | 5.69% | 6.02% | 3.49% | 2.53% |
| PLGO | 2025-08-13 | 2026-04-14 | 2026-04-28 | — | 19.93 | 19.93 | 0.00% | market | 131.03% | 894.45% | 6.02% | 3.49% | 2.53% |
| PNC | 2026-04-15 | 2026-04-16 | 2026-04-30 | — | 221.79 | 221.79 | 0.00% | market | 5.09% | 8.07% | 0.35% | 2.51% | -2.16% |
| TSM | 2026-04-15 | 2026-04-16 | 2026-04-30 | — | 368.86 | 368.86 | 0.00% | market | 5.44% | 3401.14% | 7.17% | 2.51% | 4.66% |
| AZZ | 2026-04-22 | 2026-04-23 | 2026-05-07 | — | 136.65 | 136.65 | 0.00% | market | 9.84% | 26.42% | 5.24% | 3.11% | 2.13% |
| AMKR | 2026-04-27 | 2026-04-28 | 2026-05-12 | — | 66.06 | 66.06 | 0.00% | market | 43.48% | 44.68% | 10.99% | 3.70% | 7.28% |
| CCK | 2026-04-27 | 2026-04-28 | 2026-05-12 | — | 100.85 | 100.85 | 0.00% | market | 6.29% | 16.24% | -0.96% | 3.70% | -4.67% |
| APH | 2026-04-29 | 2026-04-30 | 2026-05-14 | — | 151.94 | 151.94 | 0.00% | market | 12.65% | 10.99% | -15.17% | 4.69% | -19.87% |
| ASX | 2026-04-29 | 2026-04-30 | 2026-05-14 | — | 31.07 | 31.07 | 0.00% | market | 17.44% | 3737.04% | 13.25% | 4.69% | 8.56% |
| ADNT | 2026-05-06 | 2026-05-07 | 2026-05-21 | — | 22.80 | 22.80 | 0.00% | market | 40.54% | 8.35% | -8.09% | 1.04% | -9.14% |
| ABCL | 2026-05-11 | 2026-05-12 | 2026-05-27 | — | 4.76 | 4.76 | 0.00% | market | 36.36% | 16.83% | 14.09% | 1.84% | 12.24% |
| APC | 2026-05-11 | 2026-05-12 | 2026-05-27 | — | 20.01 | 20.01 | 0.00% | market | 42.86% | 64.42% | -2.10% | 1.84% | -3.94% |
| ATAT | 2026-05-13 | 2026-05-14 | 2026-05-29 | — | 37.24 | 37.24 | 0.00% | market | 29.73% | 702.40% | -7.99% | 1.73% | -9.71% |
| DT | 2026-05-13 | 2026-05-14 | 2026-05-29 | — | 34.80 | 34.80 | 0.00% | market | 5.43% | 8.70% | 22.19% | 1.73% | 20.46% |
| ADI | 2026-05-20 | 2026-05-21 | 2026-06-05 | — | 396.64 | 396.64 | 0.00% | market | 6.92% | 8.02% | 1.00% | -0.15% | 1.15% |
| AZO | 2026-05-26 | 2026-05-27 | 2026-06-10 | — | 3,100.26 | 3,100.26 | 0.00% | market | 5.11% | 43.24% | 0.12% | -3.39% | 3.51% |
| BBAR | 2026-05-26 | 2026-05-27 | 2026-06-10 | — | 16.82 | 16.82 | 0.00% | market | 58.82% | 257555.45% | 4.79% | -3.39% | 8.18% |
| AEO | 2026-05-28 | 2026-05-29 | 2026-06-12 | — | 14.65 | 14.65 | 0.00% | market | 15.61% | 52.83% | 28.06% | -1.87% | 29.93% |
| AMBA | 2026-05-28 | 2026-05-29 | 2026-06-12 | — | 82.52 | 82.52 | 0.00% | market | 10.85% | 55.46% | -18.06% | -1.87% | -16.19% |
| GWRE | 2026-06-04 | 2026-06-05 | 2026-06-22 | — | 131.13 | 131.13 | 0.00% | market | 10.36% | 13.64% | -21.89% | -1.05% | -20.84% |
| CASY | 2026-06-09 | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-25 | — | 800.65 | 800.65 | 0.00% | market | 32.02% | 52.77% | -2.19% | 0.12% | -2.31% |
| DBI | 2026-06-09 | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-25 | — | 6.81 | 6.81 | 0.00% | market | 250.00% | 264.40% | -13.71% | 0.12% | -13.83% |
| MH | 2026-06-11 | 2026-06-12 | 2026-06-29 | — | 12.38 | 12.38 | 0.00% | market | 92.89% | 49.18% | -25.16% | 0.04% | -25.20% |
| RH | 2026-06-11 | 2026-06-12 | 2026-06-29 | — | 159.32 | 159.32 | 0.00% | market | 7.08% | 118.79% | 2.24% | 0.04% | 2.20% |
| CCL | 2026-06-23 | 2026-06-24 | 2026-07-09 | — | 29.31 | 29.31 | 0.00% | market | 19.12% | 230.26% | -9.04% | 2.25% | -11.29% |
| MU | 2026-06-24 | 2026-06-25 | 2026-07-10 | — | 1,233.00 | 1,233.00 | 0.00% | market | 19.69% | 24.09% | -20.78% | 2.17% | -22.95% |
| BB | 2026-06-25 | 2026-06-26 | 2026-07-13 | — | 10.08 | 10.08 | 0.00% | market | 33.33% | 6.35% | 6.05% | 2.77% | 3.28% |
| STZ | 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-01 | 2026-07-16 | — | 142.76 | 142.76 | 0.00% | market | 6.52% | 5.22% | -5.13% | 0.77% | -5.90% |
| FC | 2026-07-01 | 2026-07-02 | 2026-07-17 | — | 19.29 | 19.29 | 0.00% | market | 12.50% | 118.52% | 4.93% | -0.55% | 5.48% |
| LEVI | 2026-07-08 | 2026-07-09 | 2026-07-23 | — | 23.46 | 23.46 | 0.00% | market | 14.80% | 28.61% | 2.53% | -1.23% | 3.76% |
| SKHY | 2024-07-25 | 2026-07-10 | 2026-07-24 | — | 170.00 | 170.00 | 0.00% | market | 6.46% | 170854.25% | -9.28% | -1.74% | -7.53% |
| KARO | 2026-07-15 | 2026-07-16 | 2026-07-30 | — | 58.58 | 58.58 | 0.00% | market | 9.57% | 1492.20% | 9.10% | -1.47% | 10.57% |
| CPAC | 2026-07-20 | 2026-07-21 | 2026-08-04 | — | 11.60 | 11.60 | 0.00% | market | 125.69% | 100.81% | 2.21% | 3.36% | -1.14% |
| BFC | 2026-07-21 | 2026-07-22 | 2026-08-05 | — | 146.26 | 146.26 | 0.00% | market | 7.46% | 6.12% | 6.67% | 3.10% | 3.57% |
| LOB | 2026-07-22 | 2026-07-23 | 2026-08-06 | — | 41.31 | 41.31 | 0.00% | market | 9.31% | 9.46% | 2.70% | 3.95% | -1.24% |