Quality overlays 4 (hold 10d) (hold 5d) (lookback 50y) (fill vwap)

Run 5f766204 · view hypothesis

completed

Legacy run: publication dates, coverage and daily drawdown were not validated. Run this hypothesis again for updated results.

Trades
185
Win rate
57.30%
Avg return
1.73%
Median return
0.66%
Avg abnormal
1.42%
Median abnormal
0.31%
Best trade
52.42%
Worst trade
-22.11%
Sharpe (per-trade)
0.17
Daily portfolio drawdown
—
Equity curve — full run
Breakdowns
BucketTradesAvg returnAvg abnormalWin rate
2021232.49%1.79%60.87%
2022421.17%1.32%54.76%
2023330.23%-0.20%51.52%
2024295.20%4.31%68.97%
2025330.14%0.03%57.58%
2026252.00%1.84%52.00%
Trades (185)
SymbolEventEntry dateExit dateΔ daysMarket entryActual buy-inDiff %Fill sourceEPS surp.ROICDebt / equityReturnBenchmarkAbnormal
QURE2021-07-262021-07-272021-08-03—27.3027.300.00%market187.50%——7.45%0.28%7.16%
PFG2021-07-272021-07-282021-08-04—62.9662.960.00%market12.58%——-1.89%-0.16%-1.74%
CINF2021-07-282021-07-292021-08-05—116.01116.010.00%market80.81%——0.23%0.44%-0.21%
CRSP2021-07-292021-07-302021-08-06—122.44122.440.00%market168.18%——11.58%1.05%10.53%
KNSL2021-07-292021-07-302021-08-06—181.11181.110.00%market19.63%——2.17%1.05%1.12%
LNC2021-08-042021-08-052021-08-12—64.1164.110.00%market30.99%——9.99%1.11%8.88%
NVO2021-08-042021-08-052021-08-12—50.6650.660.00%market13.16%——0.35%1.11%-0.76%
ESNT2021-08-062021-08-092021-08-16—47.9247.920.00%market12.70%——-1.33%1.02%-2.35%
BNTX2021-08-092021-08-102021-08-17—458.00458.000.00%market55.45%——-20.13%0.32%-20.45%
PAX2021-08-192021-08-202021-08-27—16.2116.210.00%market323.08%——0.15%2.28%-2.13%
SBSW2021-08-262021-08-272021-09-03—15.7215.720.00%market859.86%——0.15%1.33%-1.18%
FAF2021-10-212021-10-222021-10-29—75.3575.350.00%market29.52%——-3.03%1.35%-4.38%
ASR2021-10-252021-10-262021-11-02—198.13198.130.00%market35.98%——-0.71%1.03%-1.73%
MC2021-10-272021-10-282021-11-04—74.3074.300.00%market31.11%——2.35%2.51%-0.16%
KNSL2021-10-282021-10-292021-11-05—171.09171.090.00%market60.61%——19.35%2.78%16.57%
LPX2021-11-022021-11-032021-11-10—64.4364.430.00%market13.16%——-0.52%0.50%-1.02%
CCU2021-11-032021-11-042021-11-11—17.3817.380.00%market15.38%——11.70%-0.34%12.04%
MED2021-11-042021-11-052021-11-12—212.61212.610.00%market15.58%——6.76%-0.43%7.19%
ESNT2021-11-052021-11-082021-11-15—48.3048.300.00%market36.30%——-4.14%-0.48%-3.65%
CUBB2021-11-082021-11-092021-11-16—27.3027.300.00%market133.33%——-0.50%-0.01%-0.49%
BNTX2021-11-092021-11-102021-11-17—233.16233.160.00%market23.49%——16.56%0.55%16.01%
LEU2021-11-102021-11-112021-11-18—68.9068.900.00%market602.38%——1.38%0.97%0.41%
ZIM2021-11-172021-11-182021-11-26—53.5053.500.00%market31.46%——-0.70%-2.19%1.49%
ORI2022-01-272022-01-282022-02-04—25.2025.200.00%market23.94%——4.03%3.70%0.32%
CB2022-02-012022-02-022022-02-09—205.00205.000.00%market15.81%——1.83%0.45%1.38%
PFG2022-02-072022-02-082022-02-15—76.5076.500.00%market12.12%——-1.05%-0.14%-0.91%
WTM2022-02-082022-02-092022-02-16—1,047.001,047.000.00%market1044.21%——1.13%-1.89%3.02%
FAF2022-02-102022-02-112022-02-18—71.0371.030.00%market28.09%——-4.24%-3.38%-0.86%
CINF2022-02-152022-02-162022-02-24—123.26123.260.00%market31.33%——-3.22%-3.52%0.31%
KNSL2022-02-172022-02-182022-02-28—192.60192.600.00%market26.62%——8.81%-0.16%8.97%
RCUS2022-02-232022-02-242022-03-03—28.7228.720.00%market601.35%——25.87%6.01%19.87%
ASR2022-02-242022-02-252022-03-04—211.78211.780.00%market29.13%——-4.26%0.60%-4.86%
MRNA2022-02-242022-02-252022-03-04—156.02156.020.00%market14.04%——-12.64%0.60%-13.23%
EXE2022-02-252022-02-282022-03-07—75.0575.050.00%market47.58%——14.34%-2.92%17.26%
SNDX2022-03-012022-03-022022-03-09—16.9516.950.00%market546.43%——2.02%-1.15%3.17%
SBSW2022-03-032022-03-042022-03-11—18.7318.730.00%market1224.37%——-5.60%-2.71%-2.89%
AMR2022-03-072022-03-082022-03-15—117.81117.810.00%market17.57%——-3.81%1.56%-5.37%
TMC2022-03-242022-03-252022-04-01—1.961.960.00%market25.00%——24.90%0.39%24.51%
BNTX2022-03-302022-03-312022-04-07—173.00173.000.00%market64.66%——-2.35%-1.99%-0.36%
ASR2022-04-252022-04-262022-05-03—203.79203.790.00%market21.52%——3.95%-2.22%6.17%
NLY2022-04-272022-04-282022-05-05—25.6425.640.00%market21.74%——4.11%-2.01%6.12%
EGY2022-05-032022-05-042022-05-11—6.916.910.00%market16.67%——-13.41%-5.83%-7.58%
CCU2022-05-042022-05-052022-05-12—13.4813.480.00%market19.44%——-2.62%-7.59%4.96%
HCI2022-05-042022-05-052022-05-12—67.9867.980.00%market126.67%——-4.62%-7.59%2.97%
MRNA2022-05-042022-05-052022-05-12—151.87151.870.00%market64.68%——-14.39%-7.59%-6.80%
ESNT2022-05-062022-05-092022-05-16—41.7441.740.00%market72.60%——-3.07%-1.24%-1.83%
ASR2022-07-252022-07-262022-08-02—186.48186.480.00%market26.44%——2.06%3.61%-1.55%
CB2022-07-262022-07-272022-08-03—190.16190.160.00%market16.99%——-2.45%5.09%-7.54%
NLY2022-07-272022-07-282022-08-04—26.2826.280.00%market20.00%——0.66%3.06%-2.39%
FAF2022-07-282022-07-292022-08-05—58.0958.090.00%market21.60%——-4.71%1.45%-6.16%
KNSL2022-07-282022-07-292022-08-05—237.00237.000.00%market14.29%——7.15%1.45%5.70%
HCC2022-08-032022-08-042022-08-11—30.8030.800.00%market18.11%——3.47%1.36%2.12%
ESNT2022-08-052022-08-082022-08-15—43.1843.180.00%market43.05%——1.38%3.28%-1.90%
PFG2022-08-082022-08-092022-08-16—71.1071.100.00%market18.71%——10.98%4.24%6.74%
BHP2022-08-162022-08-172022-08-24—56.2756.270.00%market87.58%——3.24%-2.87%6.11%
PAGS2022-08-252022-08-262022-09-02—16.4516.450.00%market113.64%——-8.43%-6.47%-1.95%
RLI2022-10-192022-10-202022-10-27—54.7654.760.00%market47.06%——15.28%3.25%12.03%
PFG2022-10-272022-10-282022-11-04—83.0083.000.00%market16.55%——8.19%-0.93%9.12%
AMPY2022-11-012022-11-022022-11-09—9.829.820.00%market588.24%——-14.46%-2.54%-11.91%
TPL2022-11-022022-11-032022-11-10—256.11256.110.00%market16.88%——16.42%6.25%10.17%
MED2022-11-032022-11-042022-11-11—96.3796.370.00%market71.20%——18.58%5.71%12.87%
CCU2022-11-082022-11-092022-11-16—11.3211.320.00%market599.79%——0.34%4.08%-3.74%
CIG-C2022-11-112022-11-142022-11-21—2.382.380.00%market21.11%——5.36%-0.52%5.88%
CIFR2022-11-142022-11-152022-11-22—0.960.960.00%market14.29%——-22.11%-0.31%-21.80%
SQM2022-11-162022-11-172022-11-25—100.26100.260.00%market13.91%——-7.72%3.04%-10.76%
RDY2023-01-252023-01-262023-02-02—10.5410.540.00%market32.35%——2.08%3.39%-1.30%
RLI2023-01-252023-01-262023-02-02—67.7267.720.00%market42.59%——-3.90%3.39%-7.28%
ORI2023-01-262023-01-272023-02-03—26.5026.500.00%market63.27%——-0.93%2.15%-3.08%
UI2023-02-032023-02-062023-02-13—282.50282.500.00%market44.96%——-0.21%0.74%-0.96%
AIZ2023-02-072023-02-082023-02-15—131.00131.000.00%market24.71%——0.63%0.21%0.42%
EXE2023-02-212023-02-222023-03-01—80.5080.500.00%market44.03%——0.94%-1.20%2.14%
CQP2023-02-232023-02-242023-03-03—52.5552.550.00%market37.50%——-6.13%2.22%-8.35%
DAO2023-02-232023-02-242023-03-03—8.268.260.00%market189.44%——14.91%2.22%12.69%
GPOR2023-02-282023-03-012023-03-08—72.3872.380.00%market43.89%——8.51%0.89%7.62%
CIG2023-03-242023-03-272023-04-03—1.551.550.00%market87.59%——12.16%3.22%8.94%
CALM2023-03-282023-03-292023-04-05—56.8956.890.00%market21.02%——-2.75%1.92%-4.67%
RLI2023-04-192023-04-202023-04-27—69.4469.440.00%market34.43%——1.54%0.29%1.25%
MANH2023-04-252023-04-262023-05-03—166.00166.000.00%market25.00%——0.83%0.32%0.51%
CINF2023-04-272023-04-282023-05-05—106.78106.780.00%market30.88%——-1.54%0.28%-1.82%
MED2023-05-012023-05-022023-05-09—84.7784.770.00%market52.92%——3.12%-0.93%4.05%
AIZ2023-05-022023-05-032023-05-10—126.24126.240.00%market18.53%——2.25%0.36%1.89%
PAGS2023-05-252023-05-262023-06-05—11.3911.390.00%market15.00%——-9.93%2.83%-12.77%
MANH2023-07-252023-07-262023-08-02—195.00195.000.00%market22.22%——-3.66%-0.95%-2.70%
ALKS2023-07-262023-07-272023-08-03—30.2230.220.00%market14.58%——-8.67%-2.22%-6.45%
CINF2023-07-272023-07-282023-08-04—107.92107.920.00%market68.06%——0.90%-1.99%2.89%
FAF2023-07-272023-07-282023-08-04—63.1963.190.00%market33.66%——-1.14%-1.99%0.85%
UVE2023-07-272023-07-282023-08-04—16.5916.590.00%market12.99%——-13.66%-1.99%-11.67%
AIZ2023-08-012023-08-022023-08-09—140.00140.000.00%market49.62%——0.46%-1.65%2.11%
IMOS2023-08-032023-08-042023-08-11—22.9522.950.00%market68.37%——-0.19%-1.12%0.94%
IHG2023-08-082023-08-092023-08-16—76.7076.700.00%market59.04%——-0.57%-2.09%1.52%
TEO2023-08-092023-08-102023-08-17—5.705.700.00%market25.00%——-2.56%-2.66%0.10%
CEPU2023-08-112023-08-142023-08-21—6.836.830.00%market366.67%——-4.35%-1.21%-3.14%
DAO2023-08-242023-08-252023-09-01—3.713.710.00%market12.68%——10.95%2.85%8.10%
MANH2023-10-242023-10-252023-11-01—183.13183.130.00%market36.36%——8.10%0.18%7.91%
PLMR2023-11-012023-11-022023-11-09—56.8056.800.00%market24.32%——1.59%1.70%-0.11%
TGTX2023-11-012023-11-022023-11-09—10.1210.120.00%market508.33%——0.10%1.70%-1.60%
BAM2023-11-062023-11-072023-11-14—31.0731.070.00%market12.90%——5.11%2.99%2.12%
NVDA2023-11-212023-11-222023-11-30—49.8549.850.00%market17.65%——-6.28%0.31%-6.59%
CB2024-01-302024-01-312024-02-07—247.20247.200.00%market63.71%——-0.23%1.94%-2.17%
MANH2024-01-302024-01-312024-02-07—255.65255.650.00%market28.75%——-3.98%1.94%-5.92%
RDY2024-01-312024-02-012024-02-08—14.3214.320.00%market13.25%——2.20%2.82%-0.62%
DECK2024-02-012024-02-022024-02-09—139.29139.290.00%market32.63%——1.03%2.36%-1.32%
CINF2024-02-062024-02-072024-02-14—107.97107.970.00%market18.13%——2.65%0.46%2.19%
ROIV2024-02-132024-02-142024-02-22—10.8010.800.00%market32.04%——5.09%2.16%2.93%
PLMR2024-02-142024-02-152024-02-23—66.9366.930.00%market18.09%——13.06%1.71%11.35%
NVDA2024-02-212024-02-222024-02-29—75.0375.030.00%market13.04%——5.34%0.81%4.53%
UVE2024-02-222024-02-232024-03-01—18.6718.670.00%market86.96%——7.29%0.70%6.59%
UGP2024-02-282024-02-292024-03-07—5.915.910.00%market81.82%——-0.27%1.33%-1.60%
GPGI2024-03-062024-03-072024-03-14—4.984.980.00%market12.98%——-3.11%0.35%-3.46%
HCI2024-03-072024-03-082024-03-15—113.52113.520.00%market128.37%——-2.00%-1.09%-0.91%
HRTG2024-03-112024-03-122024-03-19—8.858.850.00%market150.00%——4.19%0.44%3.75%
MANH2024-04-232024-04-242024-05-01—208.49208.490.00%market18.39%——-0.45%-1.23%0.78%
KOF2024-04-242024-04-252024-05-02—96.1896.180.00%market16.67%——1.35%1.17%0.17%
MCY2024-04-302024-05-012024-05-08—53.1053.100.00%market420.00%——6.98%3.15%3.83%
PTGX2024-05-072024-05-082024-05-15—27.0827.080.00%market173.95%——16.11%2.82%13.29%
MANH2024-07-232024-07-242024-07-31—247.39247.390.00%market23.30%——3.13%0.36%2.77%
CINF2024-07-252024-07-262024-08-02—116.00116.000.00%market34.24%——12.27%-1.73%14.00%
ORI2024-07-252024-07-262024-08-02—33.0533.050.00%market24.59%——4.68%-1.73%6.41%
HCI2024-08-082024-08-092024-08-16—92.9892.980.00%market20.98%——3.24%4.62%-1.38%
GCTS2024-08-142024-08-152024-08-22—3.353.350.00%market87.50%——-5.47%1.22%-6.70%
DAO2024-08-222024-08-232024-08-30—3.293.290.00%market57.87%——0.20%0.74%-0.54%
MANH2024-10-222024-10-232024-10-30—280.00280.000.00%market27.36%——-5.17%-0.22%-4.96%
FPI2024-10-302024-10-312024-11-07—11.2411.240.00%market152.53%——8.09%3.48%4.60%
ABXL2024-11-072024-11-082024-11-15—26.9426.940.00%market47.93%——-1.73%-1.75%0.01%
INOD2024-11-072024-11-082024-11-15—30.3430.340.00%market400.00%——21.03%-1.75%22.78%
SBS2024-11-122024-11-132024-11-20—3.323.320.00%market122.22%——2.91%-1.15%4.06%
EVTL2024-11-152024-11-182024-11-25—4.574.570.00%market30.27%——52.42%1.93%50.49%
PTGX2025-02-212025-02-242025-03-03—38.7538.750.00%market3200.00%——-0.75%-3.03%2.29%
ACAD2025-02-262025-02-272025-03-06—19.4419.440.00%market30.77%——-9.51%-4.04%-5.47%
CDNA2025-02-262025-02-272025-03-06—22.3822.380.00%market260.00%——-15.65%-4.04%-11.61%
HCI2025-02-272025-02-282025-03-07—126.00126.000.00%market111.27%——7.74%-1.65%9.39%
HIPO2025-03-052025-03-062025-03-13—31.7631.760.00%market53.33%——-15.21%-4.18%-11.03%
GCTS2025-03-252025-03-262025-04-02—2.032.030.00%market26.67%——-19.80%-1.86%-17.95%
MANH2025-04-222025-04-232025-04-30—178.47178.470.00%market15.53%——-0.71%2.61%-3.32%
PTCT2025-05-062025-05-072025-05-14—39.4039.400.00%market1029.63%——18.55%4.90%13.66%
SEZL2025-05-072025-05-082025-05-15—68.8268.820.00%market212.50%——30.82%4.46%26.36%
SOUN2025-05-082025-05-092025-05-16—9.709.700.00%market542.86%——15.26%4.89%10.37%
UI2025-05-092025-05-122025-05-19—429.00429.000.00%market52.28%——0.06%2.30%-2.24%
EVTL2025-05-132025-05-142025-05-21—5.025.020.00%market1210.00%——2.89%-0.84%3.73%
STOK2025-05-132025-05-142025-05-21—8.718.710.00%market613.51%——8.74%-0.84%9.58%
P2025-05-282025-05-292025-06-05—51.5851.580.00%market17.98%——5.75%-0.00%5.76%
EVTL2025-06-102025-06-112025-06-18—5.825.820.00%market2165.00%——1.10%-1.12%2.22%
MANH2025-07-222025-07-232025-07-30—245.00245.000.00%market15.93%——-7.06%0.46%-7.52%
STRK2025-07-302025-07-312025-08-07—104.80104.800.00%market33324.86%——4.29%-1.13%5.42%
MSTR2025-07-312025-08-012025-08-08—390.41390.410.00%market33253.67%——1.11%1.74%-0.63%
STRD2025-07-312025-08-012025-08-08—85.1185.110.00%market33253.67%——0.95%1.74%-0.79%
STRF2025-07-312025-08-012025-08-08—117.35117.350.00%market33253.67%——0.29%1.74%-1.45%
HG2025-08-062025-08-072025-08-14—22.3522.350.00%market53.47%——9.07%1.37%7.70%
STRC2025-08-062025-08-072025-08-14—97.5597.550.00%market33253.67%——0.37%1.37%-1.00%
UI2025-08-222025-08-252025-09-02—513.01513.010.00%market58.74%——2.92%-0.59%3.51%
LUXE2025-09-112025-09-122025-09-19—9.099.090.00%market3261.11%——-5.49%0.93%-6.42%
MANH2025-10-212025-10-222025-10-29—198.79198.790.00%market14.29%——-10.39%2.29%-12.68%
QCRH2025-10-222025-10-232025-10-30—74.2174.210.00%market25.43%——-0.13%1.75%-1.88%
MAX2025-10-292025-10-302025-11-06—13.2413.240.00%market23.81%——-4.10%-1.99%-2.12%
INDV2025-10-302025-10-312025-11-07—29.6829.680.00%market89.47%——5.49%-2.05%7.55%
AFL2025-11-042025-11-052025-11-12—110.74110.740.00%market40.68%——3.39%1.24%2.15%
HLNE2025-11-042025-11-052025-11-12—124.17124.170.00%market42.59%——8.22%1.24%6.97%
HIPO2025-11-052025-11-062025-11-13—38.2838.280.00%market1650.00%——-15.36%-0.65%-14.70%
CLMT2025-11-072025-11-102025-11-17—19.2819.280.00%market30.00%——-3.78%-1.71%-2.07%
UI2025-11-072025-11-102025-11-17—632.82632.820.00%market18.09%——-14.53%-1.71%-12.82%
QCRH2026-01-272026-01-282026-02-04—89.0889.080.00%market12.76%——3.78%-1.56%5.34%
DECK2026-01-292026-01-302026-02-06—114.90114.900.00%market20.22%——0.38%-0.17%0.55%
SONO2026-02-032026-02-042026-02-11—16.1016.100.00%market26.56%——2.38%0.23%2.15%
UI2026-02-062026-02-092026-02-17—617.57617.570.00%market25.97%——12.53%-0.95%13.48%
LYFT2026-02-102026-02-112026-02-19—14.2214.220.00%market53.85%——-2.35%-1.71%-0.64%
STAG2026-02-112026-02-122026-02-20—39.8039.800.00%market175.00%——-0.78%-0.69%-0.09%
FPI2026-02-182026-02-192026-02-26—12.1212.120.00%market19.05%——7.00%0.80%6.20%
IIPR2026-02-232026-02-242026-03-03—47.6047.600.00%market79.05%——12.53%-0.23%12.76%
LKFT2026-02-232026-02-242026-03-03—35.7335.730.00%market11077.73%——-7.60%-0.23%-7.37%
BCRX2026-02-262026-02-272026-03-06—7.957.950.00%market1500.00%——6.57%-1.57%8.13%
INDV2026-02-262026-02-272026-03-06—33.1533.150.00%market26.15%——-2.75%-1.57%-1.19%
ANRO2026-03-162026-03-172026-03-24—24.3224.320.00%market19.64%——-17.08%-2.86%-14.22%
ANDG2026-03-172026-03-182026-03-25—26.2226.220.00%market53.57%——-0.67%-1.73%1.05%
MU2026-03-182026-03-192026-03-26—424.97424.970.00%market32.75%——-16.46%-1.81%-14.65%
GCTS2026-03-252026-03-262026-04-02—1.111.110.00%market31.82%——8.01%0.58%7.43%
MANH2026-04-212026-04-222026-04-29—149.00149.000.00%market12.73%——-3.56%0.34%-3.90%
FICO2026-04-282026-04-292026-05-06—1,088.781,088.780.00%market14.78%——-2.10%3.21%-5.31%
IRT2026-04-292026-04-302026-05-07—15.9515.950.00%market766.67%——2.53%2.37%0.16%
INDV2026-04-302026-05-012026-05-08—37.3937.390.00%market50.00%——5.54%2.27%3.27%
KIM2026-04-302026-05-012026-05-08—23.6523.650.00%market19.36%——-0.82%2.27%-3.09%
SNDK2026-04-302026-05-012026-05-08—1,059.021,059.020.00%market60.12%——47.43%2.27%45.16%
OSCR2026-05-062026-05-072026-05-14—19.7919.790.00%market71.07%——16.88%1.78%15.09%
SEZL2026-05-062026-05-072026-05-14—100.66100.660.00%market15.32%——2.66%1.78%0.88%
CIG-C2026-05-082026-05-112026-05-18—3.383.380.00%market32.98%——-3.06%0.30%-3.36%
MU2026-06-242026-06-252026-07-02—1,233.001,233.000.00%market19.69%——-20.98%0.79%-21.77%