High-quality earnings beat (profitability + surprise) 2 (lookback 30y) (6) (Copy)

Run 5f76bf0f · view hypothesis

completed

Legacy run: publication dates, coverage and daily drawdown were not validated. Run this hypothesis again for updated results.

Trades
160
Win rate
46.88%
Avg return
0.46%
Median return
-0.80%
Avg abnormal
-0.12%
Median abnormal
-1.80%
Best trade
67.07%
Worst trade
-45.89%
Sharpe (per-trade)
0.03
Daily portfolio drawdown
-37.81%
Portfolio (equal_weight)
Total return
14.57%
Max drawdown
-37.81%
Avg trade return
0.46%
Win rate
46.88%
Signals
354
Configured concurrent
5
Observed concurrent
5
Trades taken
160
Skipped (no capacity)
194
Excess vs benchmark
-56.05%
Avg entry slippage
0.00%
Return if filled at market
14.57%
VWAP fills
0
VWAP fallbacks
0

194 of 354 qualifying signals were dropped because no position slot or cash was available.

Equity curve — full run
Breakdowns
BucketTradesAvg returnAvg abnormalWin rate
202115-1.60%-2.30%40.00%
202234-2.09%-0.26%44.12%
2023321.19%-0.12%50.00%
2024311.35%-1.67%45.16%
2025284.63%4.37%57.14%
202620-2.08%-2.12%40.00%
Trades (160)
SymbolEventEntry dateExit dateΔ daysMarket entryActual buy-inDiff %Fill sourceEPS surp.ROEOp. marginReturnBenchmarkAbnormal
CSTM2021-07-282021-07-292021-08-26—19.6019.600.00%market322.01%——-0.61%1.46%-2.07%
LPL2021-07-282021-07-292021-08-26—9.739.730.00%market20.45%——-9.66%1.46%-11.12%
ACI2021-07-292021-07-302021-08-27—21.8221.820.00%market30.88%——30.01%2.82%27.19%
LYV2021-08-032021-08-042021-09-01—80.4780.470.00%market33.33%——7.22%2.73%4.49%
RHP2021-08-032021-08-042021-09-01—75.9575.950.00%market94.12%——10.34%2.73%7.61%
NTNX2021-09-012021-09-022021-10-01—39.5339.530.00%market39.53%——-1.34%-4.21%2.87%
INTA2021-09-082021-09-092021-10-07—39.0739.070.00%market51.28%——-33.27%-2.67%-30.60%
CALX2021-10-252021-10-262021-11-23—52.6352.630.00%market20.69%——33.70%2.40%31.30%
OI2021-10-252021-10-262021-11-23—14.0514.050.00%market11.54%——-13.12%2.40%-15.53%
CSTM2021-10-272021-10-282021-11-26—19.0019.000.00%market209.43%——-5.52%0.77%-6.29%
LPL2021-10-272021-10-282021-11-26—8.288.280.00%market27.27%——3.28%0.77%2.51%
SLAB2021-10-272021-10-282021-11-26—188.45188.450.00%market126.67%——2.12%0.77%1.35%
NTNX2021-11-232021-11-242021-12-23—33.5333.530.00%market35.29%——-3.28%0.97%-4.26%
FLNC2021-12-092021-12-102022-01-10—31.3231.320.00%market43.48%——-16.93%-0.79%-16.13%
RIVN2021-12-162021-12-172022-01-18—99.9299.920.00%market35.57%——-26.88%-1.10%-25.79%
ACI2022-01-112022-01-122022-02-10—28.7928.790.00%market31.67%——-0.90%-4.72%3.82%
EXTR2022-01-272022-01-282022-02-28—12.4112.410.00%market16.67%——-7.51%0.91%-8.43%
HRB2022-02-012022-02-022022-03-03—23.2023.200.00%market20.31%——11.93%-4.34%16.27%
PI2022-02-092022-02-102022-03-11—76.8976.890.00%market540.00%——-23.81%-6.93%-16.88%
TM2022-02-092022-02-102022-03-11—195.00195.000.00%market34.49%——-18.94%-6.93%-12.01%
NRGV2022-02-102022-02-112022-03-14—10.1910.190.00%market95.70%——16.68%-7.21%23.89%
CAPL2022-02-282022-03-012022-03-29—20.6820.680.00%market52.38%——6.67%6.09%0.58%
BW2022-03-082022-03-092022-04-06—7.237.230.00%market200.00%——11.93%5.03%6.90%
IRON2022-03-102022-03-112022-04-08—14.5014.500.00%market17.51%——-4.93%4.54%-9.47%
ULTA2022-03-102022-03-112022-04-08—385.00385.000.00%market18.12%——4.20%4.54%-0.34%
ARCO2022-03-162022-03-172022-04-14—7.497.490.00%market37.50%——1.37%0.97%0.40%
SNDA2022-04-152022-04-182022-05-16—31.0631.060.00%market23.87%——-11.85%-8.41%-3.45%
GSHD2022-04-262022-04-272022-05-25—52.5052.500.00%market128.57%——-6.96%-4.76%-2.19%
NSP2022-04-262022-04-272022-05-25—108.71108.710.00%market10.56%——-13.65%-4.76%-8.89%
PI2022-04-272022-04-282022-05-26—51.9051.900.00%market887.93%——-10.66%-4.02%-6.64%
PBI2022-04-282022-04-292022-05-27—5.255.250.00%market166.67%——-11.34%-1.97%-9.37%
APLD2022-05-132022-05-162022-06-14—1.901.900.00%market42.86%——-45.89%-6.53%-39.36%
VSCO2022-05-312022-06-012022-06-30—45.2345.230.00%market32.14%——-38.26%-9.13%-29.13%
CHWY2022-06-012022-06-022022-07-01—27.0927.090.00%market128.57%——37.18%-6.88%44.07%
MUSA2022-07-272022-07-282022-08-25—279.00279.000.00%market70.36%——6.49%4.38%2.11%
PI2022-07-272022-07-282022-08-25—80.2580.250.00%market787.81%——20.09%4.38%15.70%
AMBP2022-07-282022-07-292022-08-26—6.566.560.00%market22.22%——-3.76%-0.56%-3.20%
NSP2022-08-012022-08-022022-08-30—113.20113.200.00%market17.17%——-4.37%-2.67%-1.70%
CWH2022-08-022022-08-032022-08-31—28.7128.710.00%market15.51%——4.81%-3.69%8.50%
VSCO2022-08-242022-08-252022-09-23—36.8136.810.00%market14.74%——-18.57%-11.39%-7.18%
CHWY2022-08-302022-08-312022-09-29—34.0834.080.00%market145.45%——-8.90%-9.29%0.38%
NTNX2022-08-312022-09-012022-09-30—20.9920.990.00%market56.41%——-0.86%-9.09%8.23%
UAL2022-10-182022-10-192022-11-16—39.3239.320.00%market23.25%——10.01%7.17%2.84%
PII2022-10-252022-10-262022-11-23—97.9097.900.00%market14.84%——15.10%5.45%9.65%
GSHD2022-10-262022-10-272022-11-25—36.5636.560.00%market33.33%——8.54%5.03%3.52%
MUSA2022-10-262022-10-272022-11-25—299.00299.000.00%market22.59%——-2.31%5.03%-7.34%
PBF2022-10-272022-10-282022-11-28—46.9946.990.00%market22.65%——-8.97%4.22%-13.20%
ARCO2022-11-162022-11-172022-12-16—7.157.150.00%market130.00%——5.35%-1.84%7.20%
WMG2022-11-222022-11-232022-12-22—31.8531.850.00%market115.38%——11.01%-4.71%15.73%
ACI2023-01-102023-01-112023-02-09—21.2521.250.00%market29.85%——-0.62%3.79%-4.41%
EXTR2023-01-252023-01-262023-02-24—17.0417.040.00%market12.50%——10.46%-1.67%12.14%
CLX2023-02-022023-02-032023-03-06—153.00153.000.00%market50.77%——-0.73%-1.73%1.00%
NSP2023-02-092023-02-102023-03-13—116.61116.610.00%market32.97%——0.34%-5.05%5.39%
AVNT2023-02-152023-02-162023-03-17—42.7842.780.00%market30.00%——-11.23%-4.60%-6.63%
PEGA2023-02-152023-02-162023-03-17—23.7623.760.00%market811.11%——-1.49%-4.60%3.11%
ALNY2023-02-232023-02-242023-03-24—191.77191.770.00%market21.13%——-1.03%0.08%-1.12%
SOUN2023-03-072023-03-082023-04-05—3.093.090.00%market11.76%——-20.49%2.31%-22.80%
QBTS2023-03-162023-03-172023-04-17—0.520.520.00%market14.29%——-1.83%5.27%-7.10%
ACI2023-04-112023-04-122023-05-10—20.8220.820.00%market17.91%——-1.73%0.24%-1.97%
GE2023-04-252023-04-262023-05-24—78.3478.340.00%market107.69%——2.70%1.07%1.62%
EXTR2023-04-262023-04-272023-05-25—16.5216.520.00%market11.54%——11.34%1.88%9.46%
MSTR2023-05-012023-05-022023-05-31—31.0131.010.00%market339.06%——-2.84%0.74%-3.58%
NCLH2023-05-012023-05-022023-05-31—14.4614.460.00%market30.23%——2.60%0.74%1.85%
REAL2023-05-092023-05-102023-06-08—1.281.280.00%market16.28%——32.71%3.68%29.03%
KMB2023-07-252023-07-262023-08-23—132.84132.840.00%market11.49%——-3.21%-2.52%-0.69%
LW2023-07-252023-07-262023-08-23—105.55105.550.00%market16.19%——-8.53%-2.52%-6.01%
CARS2023-08-032023-08-042023-09-01—21.2821.280.00%market1270.00%——-12.04%0.10%-12.14%
CPS2023-08-032023-08-042023-09-01—20.8520.850.00%market38.17%——-26.14%0.10%-26.25%
IMOS2023-08-032023-08-042023-09-01—22.9522.950.00%market68.37%——4.17%0.10%4.07%
BBAR2023-08-232023-08-242023-09-22—5.095.090.00%market72.97%——-7.37%-3.21%-4.16%
LUCK2023-09-112023-09-122023-10-10—10.4210.420.00%market5464.08%——10.17%-2.78%12.95%
JBTM2023-09-302023-10-022023-10-30—104.66104.660.00%market1291.88%——-2.78%-2.59%-0.20%
TNET2023-10-252023-10-262023-11-24—110.65110.650.00%market37.41%——1.90%9.33%-7.43%
NSP2023-10-312023-11-012023-11-30—105.53105.530.00%market69.77%——7.69%8.87%-1.18%
MAX2023-11-012023-11-022023-12-01—9.639.630.00%market14.71%——6.75%7.62%-0.87%
MUSA2023-11-012023-11-022023-12-01—367.00367.000.00%market20.53%——0.89%7.62%-6.74%
SUN2023-11-012023-11-022023-12-01—51.1551.150.00%market134.13%——5.18%7.62%-2.44%
VSTS2023-11-292023-11-302023-12-29—18.2918.290.00%market281.25%——15.48%4.35%11.13%
BNED2023-12-062023-12-072024-01-08—130.50130.500.00%market12400.00%——53.16%3.87%49.29%
BLBD2023-12-112023-12-122024-01-11—24.0024.000.00%market37.50%——3.23%3.19%0.04%
LZM2023-12-142023-12-152024-01-17—8.738.730.00%market24.97%——-28.74%0.60%-29.33%
COR2024-01-312024-02-012024-03-01—232.65232.650.00%market13.49%——1.78%5.82%-4.04%
CLX2024-02-012024-02-022024-03-04—158.50158.500.00%market100.00%——-4.87%4.63%-9.50%
PBI2024-02-012024-02-022024-03-04—4.124.120.00%market250.00%——-0.10%4.63%-4.73%
HRB2024-02-062024-02-072024-03-07—45.4245.420.00%market19.62%——6.35%3.73%2.62%
ASND2024-02-072024-02-082024-03-08—140.82140.820.00%market24.14%——4.02%2.73%1.28%
ESTC2024-02-292024-03-012024-04-01—115.96115.960.00%market16.13%——-13.38%2.59%-15.97%
BOX2024-03-052024-03-062024-04-04—28.9528.950.00%market10.53%——-4.69%0.49%-5.19%
BURL2024-03-072024-03-082024-04-08—223.60223.600.00%market10.91%——-10.97%0.63%-11.60%
BLND2024-03-152024-03-182024-04-16—2.882.880.00%market12.50%——-17.46%-2.04%-15.42%
TSHA2024-03-192024-03-202024-04-18—2.952.950.00%market488.89%——-18.41%-3.15%-15.25%
NBTX2024-04-242024-04-252024-05-23—5.915.910.00%market60.40%——11.74%5.36%6.38%
PI2024-04-242024-04-252024-05-23—130.28130.280.00%market110.00%——29.23%5.36%23.86%
BALL2024-04-262024-04-292024-05-28—70.2570.250.00%market23.64%——-4.07%3.87%-7.94%
ALNY2024-05-022024-05-032024-06-03—154.41154.410.00%market85.71%——-2.66%3.26%-5.92%
AMRX2024-05-032024-05-062024-06-04—6.826.820.00%market55.56%——-2.15%2.85%-5.00%
CLBT2024-05-232024-05-242024-06-25—12.0012.000.00%market45.45%——-1.85%3.22%-5.07%
RBRK2024-06-112024-06-122024-07-12—36.5736.570.00%market13.66%——-7.54%3.39%-10.93%
TNET2024-07-262024-07-292024-08-26—110.94110.940.00%market19.53%——-8.99%2.71%-11.69%
ALNY2024-08-012024-08-022024-08-30—260.18260.180.00%market152.34%——0.86%5.21%-4.35%
APPN2024-08-012024-08-022024-08-30—28.2328.230.00%market16.13%——14.81%5.21%9.60%
CPS2024-08-012024-08-022024-08-30—13.2613.260.00%market69.38%——16.42%5.21%11.20%
PWP2024-08-022024-08-052024-09-03—16.4316.430.00%market152.94%——12.86%7.90%4.96%
CHWY2024-08-282024-08-292024-09-27—28.7228.720.00%market257.14%——4.22%1.99%2.23%
DOCU2024-09-052024-09-062024-10-04—60.2460.240.00%market20.20%——5.88%4.19%1.69%
RBRK2024-09-092024-09-102024-10-08—29.8529.850.00%market17.70%——15.91%4.52%11.39%
EAT2024-10-302024-10-312024-11-29—103.21103.210.00%market37.68%——28.06%4.69%23.37%
DDL2024-11-062024-11-072024-12-06—4.434.430.00%market266.67%——-0.55%2.48%-3.04%
GH2024-11-062024-11-072024-12-06—32.3932.390.00%market18.18%——13.73%2.48%11.25%
AVAH2024-11-072024-11-082024-12-09—5.775.770.00%market253.98%——-9.29%1.43%-10.71%
BAK2024-11-072024-11-082024-12-09—5.675.670.00%market300.00%——-14.91%1.43%-16.34%
RBRK2024-12-052024-12-062025-01-07—65.6865.680.00%market47.50%——-2.14%-3.10%0.96%
EAT2025-01-292025-01-302025-02-28—183.00183.000.00%market104.38%——-10.03%-1.62%-8.41%
KD2025-02-032025-02-042025-03-05—37.0637.060.00%market25.03%——0.22%-2.47%2.69%
LUMN2025-02-042025-02-052025-03-06—5.495.490.00%market280.00%——-8.48%-4.65%-3.83%
UBER2025-02-052025-02-062025-03-07—65.6765.670.00%market542.00%——16.04%-4.96%21.00%
CAR2025-02-112025-02-122025-03-13—88.6088.600.00%market54.00%——-37.47%-7.97%-29.50%
BBAI2025-03-062025-03-072025-04-04—3.533.530.00%market20.00%——-19.36%-11.49%-7.87%
UP2025-03-112025-03-122025-04-09—23.4023.400.00%market96.82%——-24.03%-2.41%-21.62%
RBRK2025-03-132025-03-142025-04-11—67.8067.800.00%market53.70%——-13.06%-3.99%-9.08%
TMC2025-03-272025-03-282025-04-28—1.981.980.00%market16.67%——67.07%-2.60%69.67%
EAF2025-04-252025-04-282025-05-27—7.057.050.00%market13.33%——60.18%7.21%52.97%
TNET2025-04-252025-04-282025-05-27—77.6377.630.00%market19.16%——6.10%7.21%-1.11%
GH2025-04-302025-05-012025-05-30—52.6552.650.00%market19.67%——-22.95%5.18%-28.13%
LYV2025-05-012025-05-022025-06-02—131.68131.680.00%market21.32%——5.12%4.95%0.16%
WK2025-05-012025-05-022025-06-02—71.0071.000.00%market100.00%——-3.79%4.95%-8.74%
JOYY2025-05-262025-05-272025-06-25—42.0042.000.00%market29.10%——20.19%3.59%16.59%
RBRK2025-06-052025-06-062025-07-08—102.80102.800.00%market53.32%——-15.60%3.62%-19.22%
HCM2025-07-022025-07-032025-08-01—15.5715.570.00%market525.93%——10.82%-0.12%10.94%
TNET2025-07-252025-07-282025-08-25—69.2869.280.00%market15.00%——-1.12%0.78%-1.91%
BA2025-07-292025-07-302025-08-27—227.84227.840.00%market11.43%——3.31%1.68%1.63%
QURE2025-07-292025-07-302025-08-27—14.8614.860.00%market22.47%——5.89%1.68%4.21%
GH2025-07-302025-07-312025-08-28—44.8644.860.00%market15.38%——43.61%1.48%42.13%
LUMN2025-07-312025-08-012025-08-29—4.024.020.00%market87.50%——23.53%2.99%20.54%
NIO2025-09-022025-09-032025-10-01—6.386.380.00%market16.57%——19.81%4.01%15.79%
GH2025-10-292025-10-302025-11-28—89.9989.990.00%market18.75%——20.38%-0.07%20.45%
TNET2025-10-292025-10-302025-11-28—58.4858.480.00%market54.17%——0.11%-0.07%0.18%
WOLF2025-10-292025-10-302025-11-28—25.9425.940.00%market22.90%——-21.92%-0.07%-21.85%
LUMN2025-10-302025-10-312025-12-01—8.708.700.00%market35.48%——-4.81%-0.70%-4.12%
ALM2025-11-032025-11-042025-12-03—6.076.070.00%market2012.70%——9.95%1.15%8.80%
BAH2026-01-232026-01-262026-02-24—103.00103.000.00%market34.09%——-26.60%-0.45%-26.15%
BA2026-01-272026-01-282026-02-26—244.09244.090.00%market2362.05%——-6.11%-1.11%-5.00%
EAT2026-01-282026-01-292026-02-27—158.25158.250.00%market13.44%——-6.45%-1.49%-4.96%
GEV2026-01-282026-01-292026-02-27—717.00717.000.00%market357.00%——21.74%-1.49%23.23%
SMG2026-01-282026-01-292026-02-27—62.6362.630.00%market25.96%——11.86%-1.49%13.35%
BEAM2026-02-242026-02-252026-03-25—33.0033.000.00%market91.15%——-30.04%-4.83%-25.21%
ACAD2026-02-252026-02-262026-03-26—23.6423.640.00%market1067.88%——-9.28%-6.95%-2.33%
SITC2026-02-262026-02-272026-03-27—6.726.720.00%market120.83%——-21.83%-7.17%-14.65%
DK2026-02-272026-03-022026-03-30—38.7738.770.00%market327.14%——17.85%-6.89%24.74%
AIV2026-03-022026-03-032026-03-31—4.364.360.00%market1063.64%——-6.75%-3.66%-3.09%
BAK2026-03-272026-03-302026-04-28—3.593.590.00%market51.02%——-4.28%11.18%-15.46%
GEV2026-04-222026-04-232026-05-21—1,147.891,147.890.00%market794.36%——-9.17%4.68%-13.85%
CVLT2026-04-282026-04-292026-05-28—98.4798.470.00%market17.43%——12.35%6.13%6.22%
PRCH2026-04-282026-04-292026-05-28—10.1010.100.00%market60.00%——2.28%6.13%-3.86%
MUSA2026-04-292026-04-302026-05-29—528.61528.610.00%market35.57%——-4.37%5.86%-10.23%
TNET2026-04-302026-05-012026-06-01—46.0046.000.00%market34.78%——6.25%5.17%1.08%
BAH2026-05-222026-05-262026-06-24—80.0380.030.00%market34.85%——-21.78%-2.24%-19.54%
DOO2026-05-282026-05-292026-06-29—57.5757.570.00%market77.33%——8.05%-1.97%10.02%
CHPT2026-06-032026-06-042026-07-06—7.477.470.00%market33.33%——-16.30%-0.11%-16.19%
ANGX2026-06-112026-06-122026-07-14—2.902.900.00%market41.43%——40.93%1.50%39.43%