Revenue-first confirmation 1

Run 5f76c9d6 · view hypothesis

completed

Legacy run: publication dates, coverage and daily drawdown were not validated. Run this hypothesis again for updated results.

Trades
177
Win rate
59.32%
Avg return
2.49%
Median return
1.50%
Avg abnormal
1.77%
Median abnormal
0.59%
Best trade
69.68%
Worst trade
-28.37%
Sharpe (per-trade)
0.21
Daily portfolio drawdown
-8.20%
Portfolio (equal_weight)
Total return
146.71%
Max drawdown
-8.20%
Avg trade return
2.49%
Win rate
59.32%
Signals
1702
Configured concurrent
3
Observed concurrent
3
Trades taken
177
Skipped (no capacity)
1525
Excess vs benchmark
81.00%
Avg entry slippage
0.00%
Return if filled at market
146.71%
VWAP fills
0
VWAP fallbacks
0

1525 of 1702 qualifying signals were dropped because no position slot or cash was available.

Equity curve — full run
Breakdowns
BucketTradesAvg returnAvg abnormalWin rate
2023231.17%0.35%56.52%
2024591.99%1.24%55.93%
2025664.51%3.71%69.70%
202629-0.06%-0.42%44.83%
Trades (177)
SymbolEventEntry dateExit dateΔ daysMarket entryActual buy-inDiff %Fill sourceRev. surp.EPS surp.Gross marginReturnBenchmarkAbnormal
ANIP2023-08-092023-08-102023-08-24—61.8361.830.00%market18.08%100.00%—2.36%-2.52%4.88%
INSW2023-08-092023-08-102023-08-24—46.3146.310.00%market15.33%18.18%—-2.24%-2.52%0.28%
IONS2023-08-092023-08-102023-08-24—39.8039.800.00%market35.71%33.33%—-0.07%-2.52%2.45%
ANF2023-08-232023-08-242023-09-08—51.2051.200.00%market11.04%547.06%—4.04%0.19%3.85%
NMM2023-08-232023-08-242023-09-08—23.1023.100.00%market9.10%15.28%—-6.38%0.19%-6.56%
NVDA2023-08-232023-08-242023-09-08—50.2250.220.00%market20.34%28.57%—-9.36%0.19%-9.55%
WLY2023-09-072023-09-082023-09-22—35.4535.450.00%market24.97%550.00%—4.47%-3.25%7.72%
WLYB2023-09-072023-09-082023-09-22—36.2736.270.00%market24.97%550.00%—3.21%-3.25%6.46%
PRMB2023-09-302023-10-022023-10-16—13.7513.750.00%market100.52%33.67%—-3.37%2.21%-5.58%
AYI2023-10-042023-10-052023-10-19—179.27179.270.00%market8.69%11.20%—-8.03%0.49%-8.51%
STT2023-10-182023-10-192023-11-02—68.7268.720.00%market50.35%9.04%—-3.07%-0.04%-3.02%
GBCI2023-10-192023-10-202023-11-03—30.7030.700.00%market15.31%11.90%—6.68%2.04%4.63%
HTH2023-10-192023-10-202023-11-03—29.2429.240.00%market174.31%18.75%—2.05%2.04%0.01%
AFL2023-11-012023-11-022023-11-16—79.0579.050.00%market16.23%27.78%—2.51%5.54%-3.04%
AAMI2023-11-022023-11-032023-11-17—15.8815.880.00%market9.79%52.54%—8.59%4.07%4.52%
ALNY2023-11-022023-11-032023-11-17—164.68164.680.00%market87.15%185.82%—-0.68%4.07%-4.75%
AMAT2023-11-162023-11-172023-12-04—142.04142.040.00%market9.42%6.00%—4.29%1.43%2.85%
ATAT2023-11-162023-11-172023-12-04—19.3519.350.00%market17.14%17.39%—-12.92%1.43%-14.35%
GLOP-PA2023-11-162023-11-172023-12-04—20.9220.920.00%market9.53%28.39%—10.85%1.43%9.41%
WLY2023-12-062023-12-072023-12-21—30.3230.320.00%market30.23%30.36%—10.65%3.46%7.20%
WLYB2023-12-062023-12-072023-12-21—29.7129.710.00%market30.23%30.36%—12.66%3.46%9.20%
LZM2023-12-142023-12-152024-01-02—8.738.730.00%market135.40%24.97%—5.86%0.67%5.18%
NKE2023-12-212023-12-222024-01-09—108.26108.260.00%market8.64%21.18%—-5.20%0.00%-5.20%
EMA2023-12-312024-01-022024-01-17—36.2436.240.00%market29.61%107.94%—1.50%0.03%1.47%
GS2024-01-162024-01-172024-01-31—375.20375.200.00%market14.72%56.13%—2.25%2.34%-0.10%
NIC2024-01-162024-01-172024-01-31—73.8973.890.00%market10.19%6.32%—5.15%2.34%2.81%
NTRS2024-01-182024-01-192024-02-02—81.3281.320.00%market88.58%9.77%—-1.26%3.50%-4.75%
HAPN2024-01-302024-01-312024-02-14—8.988.980.00%market73.47%508.11%—-3.66%2.04%-5.70%
MSFT2024-01-302024-01-312024-02-14—406.96406.960.00%market10.28%5.40%—0.52%2.04%-1.51%
CLX2024-02-012024-02-022024-02-16—158.50158.500.00%market10.32%100.00%—-4.80%2.01%-6.81%
ROIV2024-02-132024-02-142024-02-29—10.8010.800.00%market16.89%32.04%—5.83%2.27%3.55%
TPG2024-02-132024-02-142024-02-29—44.4244.420.00%market151.69%24.39%—-0.26%2.27%-2.53%
COIN2024-02-152024-02-162024-03-04—189.05189.050.00%market15.46%13354.08%—21.11%2.11%19.00%
ACMR2024-02-282024-02-292024-03-14—31.7131.710.00%market14.09%330.00%—-13.47%1.35%-14.83%
BKSY2024-02-282024-02-292024-03-14—12.0012.000.00%market34.55%44.44%—-12.10%1.35%-13.45%
AVAV2024-03-042024-03-052024-03-19—150.64150.640.00%market9.35%90.91%—-3.39%1.07%-4.46%
EGY2024-03-132024-03-142024-03-28—4.804.800.00%market31.08%208.33%—45.11%1.18%43.93%
ARR2024-03-152024-03-182024-04-02—18.8318.830.00%market659.44%18.89%—2.66%0.94%1.72%
TSHA2024-03-192024-03-202024-04-04—2.952.950.00%market36.00%488.89%—-9.25%-0.52%-8.73%
EMA2024-03-312024-04-012024-04-15—34.6934.690.00%market40.34%31.06%—-3.13%-3.70%0.57%
PVH2024-04-012024-04-022024-04-16—111.50111.500.00%market19.85%5.38%—-3.60%-2.84%-0.76%
BB2024-04-032024-04-042024-04-18—2.962.960.00%market10.80%193.83%—-5.84%-4.58%-1.26%
STT2024-04-122024-04-152024-04-29—76.4776.470.00%market73.52%12.67%—-3.34%-0.98%-2.36%
GS2024-04-152024-04-162024-04-30—404.45404.450.00%market9.84%35.28%—5.40%-0.59%5.99%
SLG2024-04-172024-04-182024-05-02—50.8350.830.00%market24.74%32.33%—2.42%0.61%1.81%
FBRT2024-04-292024-04-302024-05-14—12.6912.690.00%market149.89%5.13%—4.16%2.90%1.26%
MBIN2024-04-292024-04-302024-05-14—40.0040.000.00%market15.83%31.39%—6.45%2.90%3.55%
AFL2024-05-012024-05-022024-05-16—83.7583.750.00%market31.35%5.06%—3.95%4.87%-0.92%
ARQT2024-05-142024-05-152024-05-30—9.429.420.00%market236.29%46.67%—-8.17%-0.61%-7.56%
MUFG2024-05-142024-05-152024-05-30—10.2210.220.00%market53.61%83.33%—1.86%-0.61%2.47%
MUFG2024-05-152024-05-162024-05-31—9.879.870.00%market326.31%116.67%—7.70%-0.47%8.18%
RNW2024-06-052024-06-062024-06-21—6.116.110.00%market22.89%133.33%—2.52%1.78%0.74%
HCM2024-06-102024-06-112024-06-26—17.9217.920.00%market185.05%157.69%—-0.66%2.14%-2.80%
LZB2024-06-172024-06-182024-07-03—39.0939.090.00%market16.37%35.71%—-6.83%0.79%-7.61%
TEN2024-06-242024-06-252024-07-10—29.4629.460.00%market15.68%8.84%—-4.65%3.19%-7.83%
EMA2024-06-302024-07-012024-07-16—33.4533.450.00%market24.98%20.55%—1.78%3.52%-1.74%
FULT2024-07-162024-07-172024-07-31—18.7618.760.00%market13.13%56.67%—3.15%-1.43%4.58%
NIC2024-07-162024-07-172024-07-31—95.0095.000.00%market29.66%15.66%—5.75%-1.43%7.18%
STT2024-07-162024-07-172024-07-31—84.9184.910.00%market73.35%5.91%—-0.03%-1.43%1.40%
EA2024-07-302024-07-312024-08-14—151.00151.000.00%market36.04%25.18%—-3.11%-0.95%-2.15%
HAPN2024-07-302024-07-312024-08-14—11.6511.650.00%market86.21%230.79%—-7.48%-0.95%-6.53%
JBGS2024-07-302024-07-312024-08-14—16.8016.800.00%market20.03%143.90%—-0.81%-0.95%0.14%
MSGS2024-08-132024-08-142024-08-28—196.50196.500.00%market35.62%178.95%—6.35%2.85%3.50%
IFS2024-08-142024-08-152024-08-29—22.7922.790.00%market559.75%17.54%—8.32%1.61%6.71%
MRX2024-08-142024-08-152024-08-29—24.5024.500.00%market95.79%60.71%—1.57%1.61%-0.04%
WDS2024-08-272024-08-282024-09-12—18.1118.110.00%market72.71%33.07%—-10.43%-0.38%-10.05%
AFRM2024-08-282024-08-292024-09-13—39.1139.110.00%market9.20%70.87%—12.43%0.30%12.13%
BZ2024-08-282024-08-292024-09-13—11.8111.810.00%market593.89%10.00%—2.86%0.30%2.56%
TEN2024-09-112024-09-122024-09-26—25.0325.030.00%market38.65%5.88%—3.18%3.12%0.06%
CALM2024-10-012024-10-022024-10-16—76.2076.200.00%market11.53%31.33%—23.47%2.57%20.90%
FBK2024-10-152024-10-162024-10-30—48.6648.660.00%market31.87%7.77%—3.43%0.04%3.40%
STT2024-10-152024-10-162024-10-30—93.0693.060.00%market73.37%6.60%—-0.24%0.04%-0.28%
BX2024-10-172024-10-182024-11-01—171.59171.590.00%market51.22%9.78%—-2.11%-2.23%0.12%
AAT2024-10-292024-10-302024-11-13—27.8727.870.00%market10.35%31.48%—-1.97%2.74%-4.70%
BLX2024-10-292024-10-302024-11-13—32.8032.800.00%market35.92%28.57%—7.19%2.74%4.45%
AAMI2024-10-312024-11-012024-11-15—26.5526.550.00%market9.42%13.46%—11.35%2.53%8.82%
BLFS2024-11-122024-11-132024-11-27—26.3026.300.00%market41.86%74.47%—3.17%0.24%2.93%
DAVE2024-11-122024-11-132024-11-27—78.2578.250.00%market14.61%208.16%—16.23%0.24%15.99%
MFG2024-11-142024-11-152024-12-02—4.844.840.00%market179.72%36.36%—7.54%2.36%5.19%
HAFN2024-11-272024-11-292024-12-13—5.725.720.00%market179.00%27.27%—-5.34%0.76%-6.10%
RBRK2024-12-052024-12-062024-12-20—65.6865.680.00%market8.59%47.50%—0.57%-2.68%3.25%
BZ2024-12-112024-12-122024-12-27—14.3514.350.00%market9.26%9.52%—-3.44%-1.91%-1.54%
EMA2024-12-312025-01-022025-01-17—37.1737.170.00%market25.31%10.17%—1.14%1.39%-0.25%
CALM2025-01-072025-01-082025-01-24—109.78109.780.00%market38.51%21.47%—-2.91%3.27%-6.18%
JEF2025-01-082025-01-102025-01-27—74.6674.660.00%market55.62%23.53%—0.21%2.30%-2.09%
STT2025-01-172025-01-212025-02-04—97.6597.650.00%market70.52%13.54%—0.65%0.18%0.46%
GE2025-01-232025-01-242025-02-07—202.50202.500.00%market13.95%25.71%—1.27%-1.48%2.76%
IBN2025-01-252025-01-272025-02-10—28.2328.230.00%market167.71%11.43%—0.96%1.69%-0.73%
MFG2025-02-032025-02-042025-02-19—5.465.460.00%market242.92%50.00%—7.41%2.53%4.88%
AAMI2025-02-062025-02-072025-02-24—24.8624.860.00%market14.77%26.21%—0.18%-1.60%1.78%
FRHC2025-02-072025-02-102025-02-25—158.61158.610.00%market241.57%15.79%—-8.42%-1.62%-6.80%
ADEA2025-02-182025-02-192025-03-05—14.9914.990.00%market26.98%11.90%—1.30%-4.43%5.73%
PTGX2025-02-212025-02-242025-03-10—38.7538.750.00%market110.63%3200.00%—44.29%-6.88%51.17%
GSHD2025-02-242025-02-252025-03-11—114.87114.870.00%market20.36%92.68%—1.57%-6.90%8.48%
AOMN2025-03-042025-03-052025-03-19—25.3825.380.00%market53.10%56.89%—-1.68%-1.66%-0.02%
WLFC2025-03-102025-03-112025-03-25—51.3251.320.00%market31.61%48.68%—14.71%2.87%11.84%
CEPU2025-03-112025-03-122025-03-26—11.5911.590.00%market18.73%966566.67%—4.39%1.14%3.24%
IHS2025-03-182025-03-192025-04-02—4.414.410.00%market13.61%812.50%—19.85%0.30%19.55%
ATAT2025-03-252025-03-262025-04-09—29.4729.470.00%market8.72%10.00%—-22.05%-4.62%-17.44%
ABX2025-03-272025-03-282025-04-11—7.737.730.00%market15.67%23.08%—1.45%-5.59%7.04%
BB2025-04-022025-04-032025-04-17—3.203.200.00%market12.43%50.00%—-1.04%-3.43%2.39%
AEHR2025-04-082025-04-092025-04-24—7.017.010.00%market23.47%600.00%—23.87%10.79%13.07%
NIC2025-04-152025-04-162025-05-01—103.00103.000.00%market24.79%7.14%—14.04%5.04%9.00%
MOV2025-04-162025-04-172025-05-02—13.5213.520.00%market23.07%30.77%—6.19%7.41%-1.23%
APH2025-04-232025-04-242025-05-08—72.4872.480.00%market11.99%20.46%—11.08%5.28%5.80%
BXMT2025-04-302025-05-012025-05-15—19.0819.080.00%market37.99%1600.00%—2.57%5.37%-2.80%
AMWL2025-05-012025-05-022025-05-16—7.727.720.00%market11.06%44.01%—-4.25%5.22%-9.46%
APA2025-05-072025-05-082025-05-22—15.9115.910.00%market20.05%27.71%—5.12%3.16%1.96%
ADCT2025-05-142025-05-152025-05-30—1.821.820.00%market30.06%5.26%—69.68%0.65%69.03%
DE2025-05-152025-05-162025-06-02—515.80515.800.00%market16.10%19.42%—-1.64%0.25%-1.89%
GOOS2025-05-212025-05-222025-06-06—10.4910.490.00%market9.47%43.75%—8.38%2.83%5.56%
BBW2025-05-292025-05-302025-06-13—51.2151.210.00%market10.78%36.05%—-2.68%1.37%-4.05%
RNW2025-06-162025-06-172025-07-02—7.007.000.00%market45.46%156.87%—-1.24%3.37%-4.62%
AVAV2025-06-242025-06-252025-07-10—223.84223.840.00%market13.89%16.67%—6.03%2.95%3.09%
LNN2025-06-262025-06-272025-07-14—145.68145.680.00%market8.00%30.88%—-6.68%1.95%-8.63%
HCM2025-07-022025-07-032025-07-18—15.5715.570.00%market142.38%525.93%—12.87%0.82%12.05%
STT2025-07-152025-07-162025-07-30—102.85102.850.00%market72.77%7.66%—9.88%1.72%8.16%
SLG2025-07-162025-07-172025-07-31—62.7462.740.00%market40.41%18.98%—-8.85%1.23%-10.08%
GE2025-07-172025-07-182025-08-01—265.40265.400.00%market15.45%16.08%—1.40%-1.20%2.60%
ACGL2025-07-292025-07-302025-08-13—89.8389.830.00%market20.05%12.17%—0.03%1.41%-1.38%
ACR2025-07-302025-07-312025-08-14—19.0519.050.00%market92.41%300.00%—3.89%0.86%3.03%
ALNY2025-07-312025-08-012025-08-15—388.68388.680.00%market16.72%158.85%—15.40%2.74%12.66%
AII2025-08-122025-08-132025-08-27—17.8917.890.00%market30.97%8.88%—8.73%0.27%8.47%
RNW2025-08-132025-08-142025-08-28—7.517.510.00%market26.65%45.45%—0.03%0.95%-0.92%
NU2025-08-142025-08-152025-08-29—13.4013.400.00%market10.99%5.03%—10.35%-0.15%10.49%
BMO2025-08-262025-08-272025-09-11—119.35119.350.00%market36.83%9.91%—6.12%2.03%4.09%
RY2025-08-272025-08-282025-09-12—145.59145.590.00%market40.11%18.22%—-1.10%1.57%-2.67%
CM2025-08-282025-08-292025-09-15—76.5776.570.00%market38.38%8.28%—3.91%2.08%1.83%
TEN2025-09-102025-09-112025-09-25—21.2421.240.00%market24.37%13.56%—7.86%0.59%7.27%
FIZZ2025-09-112025-09-122025-09-26—40.4540.450.00%market8.61%18.11%—-8.41%0.64%-9.05%
JEF2025-09-292025-09-302025-10-14—68.2668.260.00%market51.23%31.25%—-21.25%-0.11%-21.15%
GHG2025-09-302025-10-012025-10-15—2.172.170.00%market152.61%153.61%—-7.47%0.30%-7.77%
NBTX2025-09-302025-10-012025-10-15—18.8618.860.00%market31.22%45.89%—47.25%0.30%46.95%
SLG2025-10-152025-10-162025-10-30—57.5457.540.00%market51.15%17.91%—-10.75%1.95%-12.70%
SYF2025-10-152025-10-162025-10-30—72.2372.230.00%market27.30%26.55%—1.78%1.95%-0.17%
KEY2025-10-162025-10-172025-10-31—17.0617.060.00%market10.06%7.89%—3.01%3.42%-0.41%
AXS2025-10-292025-10-302025-11-13—90.1890.180.00%market10.64%19.49%—13.77%-1.73%15.51%
BXMT2025-10-292025-10-302025-11-13—18.7718.770.00%market22.61%26.32%—-1.96%-1.73%-0.23%
AGIO2025-10-302025-10-312025-11-14—42.8642.860.00%market10.09%7.77%—1.74%-1.91%3.66%
ATEX2025-11-122025-11-132025-11-28—19.9419.940.00%market8.61%78.46%—3.01%0.42%2.58%
IX2025-11-122025-11-132025-11-28—26.1526.150.00%market9.35%74.30%—4.49%0.42%4.06%
AVAL2025-11-132025-11-142025-12-01—4.194.190.00%market95.59%10.00%—-1.53%2.24%-3.77%
CRDO2025-12-012025-12-022025-12-16—195.64195.640.00%market14.06%36.23%—-28.37%-0.45%-27.92%
RY2025-12-032025-12-042025-12-18—158.58158.580.00%market37.33%9.96%—5.30%-1.29%6.59%
WDH2025-12-032025-12-042025-12-18—1.921.920.00%market12.64%58.23%—-1.14%-1.29%0.15%
MFG2025-12-292025-12-302026-01-14—7.377.370.00%market179.13%44.72%—13.74%0.42%13.32%
MUFG2025-12-292025-12-302026-01-14—15.9515.950.00%market131.92%41.58%—13.76%0.42%13.33%
SMFG2025-12-292025-12-302026-01-14—19.5219.520.00%market143.55%134.26%—6.15%0.42%5.73%
LOB2026-01-212026-01-222026-02-05—40.0040.000.00%market14.95%69.64%—0.50%-1.77%2.27%
NXT2026-01-272026-01-282026-02-11—122.97122.970.00%market11.54%18.28%—-2.60%-0.73%-1.87%
FIBK2026-01-282026-01-292026-02-12—37.9037.900.00%market20.95%68.75%—-1.58%-2.17%0.59%
EVR2026-02-042026-02-052026-02-20—342.60342.600.00%market15.82%33.94%—-4.32%1.25%-5.57%
ACRE2026-02-102026-02-112026-02-26—5.725.720.00%market12.38%1400.00%—-10.59%-1.02%-9.57%
FAF2026-02-112026-02-122026-02-27—66.2466.240.00%market13.77%39.16%—5.74%-1.19%6.93%
AG2026-02-192026-02-202026-03-06—25.0225.020.00%market14.92%34.71%—3.14%-1.46%4.59%
APA2026-02-252026-02-262026-03-12—27.6427.640.00%market12.14%41.30%—21.50%-3.93%25.43%
AGO2026-02-262026-02-272026-03-13—89.3389.330.00%market34.58%50.65%—-6.76%-3.04%-3.72%
AMBQ2026-03-052026-03-062026-03-20—29.5029.500.00%market9.19%17.95%—-17.93%-3.69%-14.24%
VEL2026-03-112026-03-122026-03-26—19.2019.200.00%market51.78%38.81%—-8.43%-3.88%-4.55%
ABX2026-03-122026-03-132026-03-27—9.539.530.00%market29.82%15.00%—-12.59%-5.26%-7.33%
TSHA2026-03-192026-03-202026-04-06—4.584.580.00%market144.50%27.27%—1.43%0.37%1.06%
NAVN2026-03-252026-03-262026-04-10—11.2611.260.00%market9.67%133.33%—10.29%4.20%6.09%
NMAX2026-03-262026-03-272026-04-13—6.906.900.00%market18.64%64.29%—-8.51%6.79%-15.29%
BB2026-04-092026-04-102026-04-24—3.903.900.00%market9.20%20.00%—30.41%4.79%25.63%
GE2026-04-212026-04-222026-05-06—286.65286.650.00%market8.39%16.25%—6.59%3.48%3.11%
MLI2026-04-212026-04-222026-05-06—68.1568.150.00%market8.26%44.39%—1.98%3.48%-1.50%
INTC2026-04-232026-04-242026-05-08—82.2082.200.00%market9.33%1428.73%—51.87%3.78%48.09%
ADPT2026-05-052026-05-062026-05-20—14.6414.640.00%market16.16%18.75%—-4.74%1.80%-6.54%
ALKS2026-05-052026-05-062026-05-20—36.3136.310.00%market8.22%29.82%—1.75%1.80%-0.05%
AGO2026-05-072026-05-082026-05-22—79.0079.000.00%market25.10%66.67%—-2.77%1.46%-4.23%
CMBT2026-05-192026-05-202026-06-04—16.7316.730.00%market22.55%378.16%—-13.79%2.91%-16.69%
GDS2026-05-202026-05-212026-06-05—35.4235.420.00%market11.81%4689.08%—-4.11%-0.15%-3.96%
AAP2026-05-212026-05-222026-06-08—58.0158.010.00%market27.61%97.44%—0.54%-0.94%1.48%
SB2026-06-172026-06-182026-07-06—6.906.900.00%market13.57%71.43%—-3.29%0.47%-3.76%
MU2026-06-242026-06-252026-07-10—1,233.001,233.000.00%market15.44%19.69%—-20.68%2.17%-22.85%
BB2026-06-252026-06-262026-07-13—10.0810.080.00%market9.36%33.33%—6.15%2.77%3.38%
WDFC2026-07-092026-07-102026-07-24—292.09292.090.00%market12.92%49.36%—-20.90%-1.74%-19.16%