High-quality earnings beat (profitability + surprise) 2 (Copy) 2 (lookback 10y)
Run 5f76cfef · view hypothesis
completed
Legacy run: publication dates, coverage and daily drawdown were not validated. Run this hypothesis again for updated results.
Trades
66
Win rate
53.03%
Avg return
9.10%
Median return
3.14%
Avg abnormal
7.33%
Median abnormal
0.76%
Best trade
135.72%
Worst trade
-22.20%
Sharpe (per-trade)
0.32
Daily portfolio drawdown
-9.86%
Portfolio (equal_weight)
Total return
60.05%
Max drawdown
-9.86%
Avg trade return
9.10%
Win rate
53.03%
Signals
66
Configured concurrent
10
Observed concurrent
5
Trades taken
66
Skipped (no capacity)
0
Excess vs benchmark
-9.52%
Avg entry slippage
0.10%
Return if filled at market
60.77%
VWAP fills
0
VWAP fallbacks
0
0 of 66 qualifying signals were dropped because no position slot or cash was available.
Equity curve — full run
Breakdowns
| Bucket | Trades | Avg return | Avg abnormal | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 5 | -10.14% | -9.31% | 20.00% |
| 2022 | 8 | -3.33% | -1.64% | 25.00% |
| 2023 | 15 | 9.82% | 6.81% | 60.00% |
| 2024 | 15 | 8.74% | 5.66% | 46.67% |
| 2025 | 16 | 24.11% | 22.37% | 75.00% |
| 2026 | 7 | 1.96% | -0.19% | 57.14% |
Trades (66)
| Symbol | Event | Entry date | Exit date | Δ days | Market entry | Actual buy-in | Diff % | Fill source | EPS surp. | ROE | Op. margin | Return | Benchmark | Abnormal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CDW | 2021-08-04 | 2021-08-06 | 2021-09-03 | — | 190.14 | 190.14 | 0.00% | market | 12.22% | — | — | 6.51% | 2.48% | 4.02% |
| TEAM | 2021-10-28 | 2021-11-01 | 2021-11-30 | — | 455.66 | 455.66 | 0.00% | market | 17.95% | — | — | -17.51% | -1.03% | -16.48% |
| RHP | 2021-11-01 | 2021-11-03 | 2021-12-02 | — | 91.09 | 91.09 | 0.00% | market | 17.50% | — | — | -14.66% | -0.85% | -13.81% |
| VSCO | 2021-11-17 | 2021-11-19 | 2021-12-20 | — | 56.07 | 56.07 | 0.00% | market | 14.08% | — | — | -16.66% | -3.12% | -13.55% |
| BJ | 2021-11-18 | 2021-11-22 | 2021-12-21 | — | 69.66 | 69.66 | 0.00% | market | 13.75% | — | — | -8.38% | -1.66% | -6.72% |
| EXTR | 2022-01-27 | 2022-01-31 | 2022-03-01 | — | 12.01 | 12.01 | 0.00% | market | 16.67% | — | — | -9.02% | -2.55% | -6.47% |
| IRON | 2022-03-10 | 2022-03-14 | 2022-04-11 | — | 14.81 | 14.81 | 0.00% | market | 17.51% | — | — | -8.64% | 4.52% | -13.16% |
| ULTA | 2022-03-10 | 2022-03-14 | 2022-04-11 | — | 369.99 | 369.99 | 0.00% | market | 18.12% | — | — | 9.03% | 4.52% | 4.51% |
| NSP | 2022-08-01 | 2022-08-03 | 2022-08-31 | — | 109.11 | 109.11 | 0.00% | market | 17.17% | — | — | -0.18% | -3.69% | 3.50% |
| CWH | 2022-08-02 | 2022-08-04 | 2022-09-01 | — | 30.03 | 30.03 | 0.00% | market | 15.51% | — | — | -1.30% | -4.33% | 3.03% |
| WYNN | 2022-08-09 | 2022-08-11 | 2022-09-09 | — | 66.47 | 66.47 | 0.00% | market | 12.77% | — | — | -5.65% | -3.87% | -1.77% |
| VSCO | 2022-08-24 | 2022-08-26 | 2022-09-26 | — | 38.00 | 38.00 | 0.00% | market | 14.74% | — | — | -22.20% | -13.13% | -9.07% |
| PII | 2022-10-25 | 2022-10-27 | 2022-11-25 | — | 100.86 | 100.86 | 0.00% | market | 14.84% | — | — | 11.32% | 5.03% | 6.29% |
| EXTR | 2023-01-25 | 2023-01-27 | 2023-02-27 | — | 17.55 | 17.55 | 0.00% | market | 12.50% | — | — | 6.35% | -1.47% | 7.82% |
| CVI | 2023-02-21 | 2023-02-23 | 2023-03-23 | — | 32.23 | 32.23 | 0.00% | market | 12.75% | — | — | -6.90% | -2.09% | -4.81% |
| ESTA | 2023-02-27 | 2023-03-01 | 2023-03-29 | — | 71.52 | 71.52 | 0.00% | market | 19.12% | — | — | -6.42% | 1.50% | -7.92% |
| MLCO | 2023-03-01 | 2023-03-03 | 2023-03-31 | — | 13.88 | 13.88 | 0.00% | market | 15.00% | — | — | -8.41% | 2.42% | -10.83% |
| QBTS | 2023-03-16 | 2023-03-20 | 2023-04-18 | — | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.00% | market | 14.29% | — | — | 13.96% | 5.99% | 7.97% |
| ACI | 2023-04-11 | 2023-04-13 | 2023-05-11 | — | 20.63 | 20.63 | 0.00% | market | 17.91% | — | — | -1.41% | 0.72% | -2.13% |
| IMOS | 2023-05-04 | 2023-05-08 | 2023-06-06 | — | 25.15 | 25.15 | 0.00% | market | 18.11% | — | — | 5.01% | 3.65% | 1.36% |
| REAL | 2023-05-09 | 2023-05-11 | 2023-06-09 | — | 1.22 | 1.22 | 0.00% | market | 16.28% | — | — | 37.06% | 4.36% | 32.70% |
| AVAH | 2023-05-11 | 2023-05-15 | 2023-06-13 | — | 1.13 | 1.13 | 0.00% | market | 16.67% | — | — | 21.02% | 5.93% | 15.09% |
| JD | 2023-05-11 | 2023-05-15 | 2023-06-13 | — | 36.26 | 36.26 | 0.00% | market | 15.00% | — | — | 4.68% | 5.93% | -1.25% |
| TSHA | 2023-05-11 | 2023-05-15 | 2023-06-13 | — | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.00% | market | 20.00% | — | — | 12.52% | 5.93% | 6.59% |
| LW | 2023-07-25 | 2023-07-27 | 2023-08-24 | — | 102.00 | 102.00 | 0.00% | market | 16.19% | — | — | -6.27% | -4.82% | -1.45% |
| MAX | 2023-11-01 | 2023-11-03 | 2023-12-04 | — | 9.85 | 9.85 | 0.00% | market | 14.71% | — | — | 6.50% | 5.44% | 1.06% |
| EDN | 2023-11-08 | 2023-11-10 | 2023-12-11 | — | 10.40 | 10.40 | 0.00% | market | 12.48% | — | — | 74.11% | 5.97% | 68.15% |
| INDV | 2023-11-09 | 2023-11-13 | 2023-12-12 | — | 15.51 | 15.51 | 0.00% | market | 13.33% | — | — | -4.52% | 5.66% | -10.18% |
| COR | 2024-01-31 | 2024-02-02 | 2024-03-04 | — | 237.47 | 237.47 | 0.00% | market | 13.49% | — | — | -0.80% | 4.63% | -5.43% |
| HRB | 2024-02-06 | 2024-02-08 | 2024-03-08 | — | 46.66 | 46.66 | 0.00% | market | 19.62% | — | — | 3.19% | 2.73% | 0.45% |
| ESTC | 2024-02-29 | 2024-03-04 | 2024-04-02 | — | 116.81 | 116.81 | 0.00% | market | 16.13% | — | — | -16.22% | 1.33% | -17.55% |
| BLND | 2024-03-15 | 2024-03-19 | 2024-04-17 | — | 3.04 | 3.04 | 0.00% | market | 12.50% | — | — | -21.23% | -2.26% | -18.97% |
| CPS | 2024-05-06 | 2024-05-08 | 2024-06-06 | — | 14.67 | 14.67 | 0.00% | market | 12.94% | — | — | -10.22% | 3.77% | -13.98% |
| INSM | 2024-05-09 | 2024-05-13 | 2024-06-11 | — | 26.24 | 26.24 | 0.00% | market | 14.52% | — | — | 135.72% | 2.75% | 132.97% |
| PACS | 2024-05-13 | 2024-05-15 | 2024-06-13 | — | 27.31 | 27.31 | 0.00% | market | 13.71% | — | — | 8.85% | 3.16% | 5.68% |
| RBRK | 2024-06-11 | 2024-06-13 | 2024-07-15 | — | 32.79 | 32.79 | 0.00% | market | 13.66% | — | — | 4.47% | 3.38% | 1.08% |
| TNET | 2024-07-26 | 2024-07-30 | 2024-08-27 | — | 104.60 | 104.60 | 0.00% | market | 19.53% | — | — | -2.53% | 2.80% | -5.33% |
| APPN | 2024-08-01 | 2024-08-05 | 2024-09-03 | — | 27.53 | 27.53 | 0.00% | market | 16.13% | — | — | 14.73% | 7.90% | 6.83% |
| ADCT | 2024-08-06 | 2024-08-08 | 2024-09-06 | — | 2.77 | 2.77 | 0.00% | market | 13.64% | — | — | -2.72% | 3.14% | -5.86% |
| BL | 2024-08-06 | 2024-08-08 | 2024-09-06 | — | 49.72 | 49.72 | 0.00% | market | 16.00% | — | — | -3.72% | 3.14% | -6.86% |
| GH | 2024-08-07 | 2024-08-09 | 2024-09-09 | — | 30.23 | 30.23 | 0.00% | market | 15.79% | — | — | -21.47% | 3.13% | -24.60% |
| RBRK | 2024-09-09 | 2024-09-11 | 2024-10-09 | — | 30.99 | 30.99 | 0.00% | market | 17.70% | — | — | 16.03% | 5.18% | 10.85% |
| GH | 2024-11-06 | 2024-11-08 | 2024-12-09 | — | 28.61 | 28.61 | 0.00% | market | 18.18% | — | — | 27.03% | 1.43% | 25.60% |
| GH | 2025-02-20 | 2025-02-24 | 2025-03-24 | — | 43.28 | 43.28 | 0.00% | market | 17.33% | — | — | 7.89% | -4.64% | 12.53% |
| BCO | 2025-02-26 | 2025-02-28 | 2025-03-28 | — | 92.45 | 92.45 | 0.00% | market | 13.98% | — | — | -5.81% | -5.11% | -0.71% |
| TMC | 2025-03-27 | 2025-03-31 | 2025-04-29 | — | 1.69 | 1.69 | 0.00% | market | 16.67% | — | — | 93.79% | 0.82% | 92.97% |
| EAF | 2025-04-25 | 2025-04-29 | 2025-05-28 | — | 6.19 | 6.19 | 0.00% | market | 13.33% | — | — | 76.10% | 7.07% | 69.03% |
| TNET | 2025-04-25 | 2025-04-29 | 2025-05-28 | — | 78.75 | 78.75 | 0.00% | market | 19.16% | — | — | 3.10% | 7.07% | -3.97% |
| GH | 2025-04-30 | 2025-05-02 | 2025-06-02 | — | 50.26 | 50.26 | 0.00% | market | 19.67% | — | — | -16.34% | 4.95% | -21.29% |
| PGEN | 2025-05-14 | 2025-05-16 | 2025-06-16 | — | 1.32 | 1.32 | 0.00% | market | 12.50% | — | — | 16.45% | 1.93% | 14.52% |
| VIK | 2025-05-20 | 2025-05-22 | 2025-06-23 | — | 43.54 | 43.54 | 0.00% | market | 18.36% | — | — | 14.04% | 3.00% | 11.04% |
| TNET | 2025-07-25 | 2025-07-29 | 2025-08-26 | — | 70.59 | 70.59 | 0.00% | market | 15.00% | — | — | -1.36% | 1.07% | -2.43% |
| GH | 2025-07-30 | 2025-08-01 | 2025-08-29 | — | 40.79 | 40.79 | 0.00% | market | 15.38% | — | — | 65.18% | 2.99% | 62.19% |
| CYTK | 2025-08-07 | 2025-08-11 | 2025-09-09 | — | 34.08 | 34.08 | 0.00% | market | 16.42% | — | — | 51.00% | 2.02% | 48.98% |
| GPGI | 2025-08-07 | 2025-08-11 | 2025-09-09 | — | 17.96 | 17.96 | 0.00% | market | 19.05% | — | — | 5.20% | 2.02% | 3.18% |
| NIO | 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-04 | 2025-10-02 | — | 6.08 | 6.08 | 0.00% | market | 16.57% | — | — | 29.75% | 3.85% | 25.91% |
| GH | 2025-10-29 | 2025-10-31 | 2025-12-01 | — | 91.48 | 91.48 | 0.00% | market | 18.75% | — | — | 14.92% | -0.70% | 15.61% |
| HRB | 2025-11-06 | 2025-11-10 | 2025-12-09 | — | 49.30 | 49.30 | 0.00% | market | 14.29% | — | — | -15.19% | 0.86% | -16.05% |
| BHVN | 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-12 | 2025-12-11 | — | 7.78 | 7.78 | 0.00% | market | 14.14% | — | — | 46.99% | 0.64% | 46.35% |
| EAT | 2026-01-28 | 2026-01-30 | 2026-03-02 | — | 159.27 | 159.27 | 0.00% | market | 13.44% | — | — | -10.69% | -0.78% | -9.90% |
| MUSA | 2026-02-04 | 2026-02-06 | 2026-03-09 | — | 393.67 | 393.67 | 0.00% | market | 12.89% | — | — | 10.85% | -0.47% | 11.32% |
| BOBS | 2026-03-17 | 2026-03-19 | 2026-04-17 | — | 14.51 | 14.51 | 0.00% | market | 16.67% | — | — | -10.40% | 8.09% | -18.49% |
| CVLT | 2026-04-28 | 2026-04-30 | 2026-05-29 | — | 100.18 | 100.18 | 0.00% | market | 17.43% | — | — | 18.44% | 5.86% | 12.58% |
| TDC | 2026-05-05 | 2026-05-07 | 2026-06-05 | — | 30.87 | 30.87 | 0.00% | market | 14.29% | — | — | 9.06% | 0.34% | 8.72% |
| URGN | 2026-05-06 | 2026-05-08 | 2026-06-08 | — | 26.98 | 26.98 | 0.00% | market | 16.07% | — | — | 0.91% | 0.58% | 0.33% |
| TMC | 2026-05-14 | 2026-05-18 | 2026-06-16 | — | 5.43 | 5.43 | 0.00% | market | 16.67% | — | — | -4.44% | 1.42% | -5.86% |